Interannual variation in climate contributes to contingency in post‐fire restoration outcomes in seeded sagebrush steppe

Abstract Interannual variation, especially weather, is an often‐cited reason for restoration “failures”; yet its importance difficult to experimentally isolate across broad spatiotemporal extents, due correlations between weather and site characteristics. We examined post‐fire treatments within sagebrush‐steppe ecosystems ask: (1) Is following seeding efforts a primary why outcomes depart from predictions? (2) Does the management‐relevance of differ space with time since treatment? Our analysis quantified range‐wide patterns sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) recovery, by integrating long‐term records annual vegetation cover estimates satellite imagery thousands 1984 2005. Across Great Basin, growth increased in wetter, cooler springs; however, spring varied sites' climates, suggesting differing ecophysiological limitations sagebrush's range. Incorporation including “planting year,” improved predictions but these advances were small compared contributions time‐invariant Given extreme conditions threatening this ecosystem, explicit consideration could improve allocation management resources, such as identifying areas requiring repeated treatments; forecasts shifting mean climate change may more significantly aid prediction recovery.